Alvaro Silva

Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

About

I am an economist working on (international) macroeconomics and trade. Here are my CV and CV of failures.
My Boston Fed website is here. Feel free to reach me at: asilvub@gmail.com.
X: @asilvub

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.

Working Papers

Inflation in Disaggregated Small Open Economies
September 2024
[X - Thread] [arXiv] [Boston Fed WP] Featured: WEO October 2024 IMF [Local PDF], Boston Fed CPP 25-2
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers, with di Giovanni, Kalemli-Özcan, and Yıldırım
July 2024
[NBER WP] [CEPR WP] [NYFED WP] Slides: Pacific Basin Conference 2024. Featured: Chapter 1 Economic Report of the President 2025.
Startup Employment and Career Trajectories, with Garcia-Trujillo and Gonzalez-Prieto
April 2023
[CBCh WP]

Work in Progress

Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Disaggregated Small Open Economies
Sectoral Working Capital Constraints and Measured Total Factor Productivity in Emerging Markets
Revisiting Terms of Trade Shocks in Small Open Economies, with Miranda-Pinto

Publications

Commodity Prices and Production Networks in Small Open Economies, with Caraiani, Miranda-Pinto, and Olaya-Agudelo
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2024
[Local PDF] Slides: CEBRA
Business Cycle Asymmetry and Input-Output Structure: The Role of Firm-to-Firm Networks, with Miranda-Pinto and Young
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2023
Saki Bigio's comment, [Local PDF] Featured: Faculti
Price Controls, Hyperinflation and the Inflation - Relative Price Variability Relationship, with Cerda and Luders
Empirical Economics, 2020
[Local PDF]
Impact of Economic Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Chile, with Cerda and Valente
Applied Economics, 2017
[Local PDF]

Other Publications

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints, with di Giovanni, Kalemli-Özcan, and Yıldırım
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023
[Local PDF] [CEPR WP] [NBER WP] [NYFED WP]
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation, with di Giovanni, Kalemli-Özcan, and Yıldırım
Proceedings of the ECB Forum on Central Banking: "Challenges for Monetary Policy in a Rapidly Changing World", 2022
[NBER WP] [CEPR WP] [NYFED WP] Featured: Bloomberg, The Economist, Financial Times, NYFED Blog, VOXEU, Chair Powell's 2024 Jackson Hole Speech. Video: SINTRA Sebnem's Presentation Slides: NBER IFM Meeting Fall 2022.
Towards Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in Latin America: A First Little Step
Latin American Policy Journal, 2018
School Funding in Chile, with Urzua
In Ideas en Educación II: Definiciones en Tiempos de Cambio, 2018

Discussions

An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains, by Flaaen, Kamal, Lee and Yi
May 2025
System Committee on International Economic Analysis

Datasets

I helped to construct two economic uncertainty indices for Chile prior to my Ph.D. I am not in charge of updating them anymore but they are regularly updated. Feel free to use it and remember to cite our work!